Chelsea's business model is doomed to failure. Football is like any other business where, if you give too much too soon to young people, in the majority of cases they stop turning up and wanting to learn something new every day. This Chelsea strategy of giving out seven and eight-year contracts to young players is an amortisation exercise. They are not the actions of true football people who understand the market or the game. They have signed 11 players with an average age of 21 this summer, for around £200million, all on long deals. I can tell you now, the majority of them will not be good enough to take Chelsea where they want to be and that's to challenge for the big two trophies - the Premier League and Champions League. And when that realisation kicks in, they will be faced with the dilemma of how to get rid of them. Over the next five years, Chelsea are going to be pushing players out of the door and recouping nothing like as much as they paid for them. Chelsea's business model is doomed to failure - the danger is that they are creating monsters These are not the actions of true football people who understand the market or the game These young men will also have been on such significant wages that the buying club will not be able to afford them and will be wanting Chelsea to help them out. Giving 20-somethings financial security for the rest of their lives, will diminish their desire. They no longer see every day as a school day. It becomes too much, too soon, and those same people will start to settle into their armchair. It makes the job of a manager nigh on mission impossible. It's never been more difficult to motivate a dressing room, never mind one full of young multi-millionaires. And then, when it doesn't work, whose fault is it? The manager's? Chelsea will argue that they no longer pay huge wages and that these long contracts protect their investments and inflate the player's value for their balance sheets. Giving 20-somethings financial security for the rest of their lives will diminish their desire They have a bloated squad of more than 50 players. I can promise you, more than half that squad will never be the players they think they are going to be. How long can you wait for them? Chelsea need results now. What lessons have they heeded from Callum Hudson-Odoi six years ago? Read More Enzo Maresca admits Chelsea are NOT targeting Champions League qualification this season A teenager with lots of potential, attracting interest from Bayern Munich and not getting picked every week, handed in a transfer request. It put Chelsea between a rock and a hard place. They gave him a five-year contract worth in excess of £100,000 a week. Before he'd even turned 19. How did that work out for them? His career drifted, he ended up being sold for £3m, yet luckily, he's got a second bite of the cherry at Nottingham Forest, so may yet turn it around. But as soon as you hand out these big deals, the players believe they are stars and that's when the problems begin. The money attracts the wrong type of people to the players, they take the wrong advice, and it starts a downward spiral. I keep going back to the importance of having good senior professionals in your dressing room. Do Chelsea have any of those right now? To compound that, the manager's door is a revolving one, which prohibits continuity. This situation is not unique to Chelsea. You could argue Manchester United rewarded Marcus Rashford too soon. There are countless examples. Half of the squad will never be the players they think they will be but Chelsea need results But Chelsea will never be a success while they continue with this business model of supposedly investing in the future, because the danger is that they are creating monsters. Putting young talent on such long contracts just eats away at hunger and desire. Player power has never been stronger. You pay them the big bucks to sign, then what happens when it doesn't work out and you need to get rid, yet they still have three years left? They pull the club's trousers down and get a pay-off to go. Over the next two weeks, Chelsea face selling more than £200m worth of players to balance the books. Good luck with that. It's Arsenal's year, barring late moves It will be super difficult for the three promoted teams to survive this season. The spectre of profit and sustainability rules means clubs that come up now are spending but not to the levels they would like to for fear of reprisals down the line. Leicester already have the threat of a points deduction hanging over them. It just means they are always fighting to survive. My top three? Well, I'm going for Arsenal to win the title, Manchester City as runners-up and Liverpool in third. That's subject to change in case of any major transfer splurges between now and August 30. I'm hoping Liverpool deliver at least one big signing because Jurgen Klopp got the most out of this group of players and they managed third last season, so will Arne Slot get the same tune out of them? I don't think he would have come without the promise of money to spend. They've brought back Michael Edwards, too, as chief executive of football. His record of recruitment was pretty impressive last time round. No one gets all of their signings right but he did particularly well and his ability to find them will be invaluable to the club going forward. Arsenal have been tipped to beat Manchester City to the Premier League title this season Goodison's grandeur stuck with me It would be wonderful for Everton to give their long-suffering supporters a great season as a fitting farewell to Goodison Park. It is a special place, one of two iconic grounds in the city, and one for which I've always had affection. Goodison was the first stadium I visited in England. Back in 1968, as a 15-year-old, I was due to play for Edinburgh Schoolboys there against Liverpool Schoolboys but torrential rain meant the game was called off. However, my mate Eric Carruthers and I got a tour of the ground. Goodison had been used in the 1966 World Cup and Everton were known as the 'Bank of England Club' then, or the 'Millionaires', because of how costly it had been to assemble their team. We went across for a tour of Anfield, too, but weren't allowed on the pitch. The grandeur of the place stuck with me. Unfortunately, for the blue half of Merseyside, I went on to make some much fonder memories of games there, too. It would be good for Everton to give their supporters a great season as a Goodison farewell Fagan wonderful on and off the pitch During the conversations for Everything I Know About Me, the podcast series I have recorded with the Mail, there was a realisation of just how lucky I have been. In last week's episode, I talked about what a great human being my former Liverpool manager Joe Fagan was. It got me thinking how good a footballer he was, too. Even in his 60s, Joe - a centre half in his day - took part in the six-a-sides at Melwood and you couldn't get past him. He had a knack of shuffling you away from the danger area. A wonderful man.
